Article on credibility
January 2nd, 2008
The Rev. Thomas Bayes and Credibility Theory, from the Jan/Feb 2008 issue of Contingencies (from the American Academy of Actuaries). Details some of the history of the development of credibility, and how it relates to Bayesian inference.
Howard Mahler notes here that FCAS Arthur Bayley’s contributions were not covered. It is a short article, with a little math, which may provide some useful context before you study the sections on credibility. Not at all required reading, but it gives you perspective on the importance of the subject and the perspectives behind its development.